Although we've only seen 2% of our fruit come in so far, we're already getting a sense that sugar levels will be higher than we saw in 2005 and 2006. At least in the North Coast, we're likely to see sugar levels similar to what we saw in 2004. This won't be universal, but it will be pretty common.
The key driver to this is not our love of sugar or our commitment to the San Francisco Municipality's water supply, but rather it's that pesky issue of physical vs. physiological ripeness. Flavor and tannin development in 2007 is happening at higher sugar levels. So if something was physiologically ripe in 2006 at 25 brix, it probably will take to at least 27 or even 28 brix in 2007. The recent heat spike was the blame. Now if temperatures moderate (which they mostly are) and vineyards are liberally irrigated (which they are) and the vines are still taking up water (which most are), then we might be able to get vintage more into balance. The danger is when a vine starts to shut down and it doesn't matter how much water you dump on them, they can't take any up and then your canopy falls apart and berries dehydrate quickly. In moderate temps and thicker skinned varietals, you get enough warning to get the fruit in time. But if you are dealing with thin skinned varietals such as pinot and get hit with a lot of heat, you could crisp everything in 2 days.
So, needless to say, this time of year we're in the vineyards a few times a week.
